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Wed

24

Oct

2007

Daily Roundup from Willard Payne (Night Watch Information Service)
Wednesday, 24 October 2007 01:42
by Willard Payne
HAKKARI - As Turkey increases its troop presence on Iraq’s border Ankara is receiving more regional and international support for its invasion-occupation and this is the day before Ankara evaluates its Action Plan offensive. Xinhua reports Iraq Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari stated in Baghdad, after a meeting with Turkey Foreign Minister Ali Babacan, “We have a common position to fight terrorism wherever it is, we will not allow any party or any group, including the PKK, to poison our bilateral relations.” I suspect Turkey’s offensive is less than two weeks away and perhaps with some air support from Washington, which is desperate to maintain some strategic relations with an Islamic country in West Asia (Middle East).
Beirut - Debka is reporting Hezbollah leaders are preparing to attack any attempt by Washington to train Lebanese army units that could defeat Hezbollah and its 25,000 well armed and trained units. Washington’s proposal could be an extension of the visit in late August, (8-31-07) by Admiral William Fallon to Beirut as fighting was continuing in the north at the Palestinian refugee camp city Nahr al-Bared that began May 20 by Fatah al-Islam. The reason Damascus congratulated Beirut on its victory over the suicide unit is because the war convinced the rest of Lebanon’s army to work with Syria-Iran and that is probably the reason the head of Lebanon’s army General Michel Suleiman was not informed of these plans. I suspect Washington and the West have found some Lebanese units they can work with.
Jenin - INN reports the Israel Defense Force (IDF) is continuing its on going counter-terrorism campaign against militant Palestinian groups this time with an overnight raid into the Samaria province of the West Bank in the city of Jenin. Two Islamic Jihad members were killed and six Palestinians arrested. This is being waged as Qassam rocket fire is again increasing from Gaza targeting the town of Sderot and the oil terminal of Ashkelon on the Mediterranean.
Cairo - Speaking in Vienna to the newspaper Der Standard, Egypt President Hosni Mubarak expressed his realistic skepticism concerning the peace conference proposed by the Bush Administration. “Some parties want to see Annapolis as a forum in which the Arabs should normalize their relationships with the Israelis-yet it will not happen like that. First of all we peace has to come.” Mubarak of course is aware that is not possible and to expect it or a peace conference to establish it is completely unrealistic. But that is the state of mind of Washington, peace conference hope to stave off panic as Washington and Europe’s influence in the region is virtually non-existent. Mubarak continued by observing, “The region cannot sustain a fresh failure to peace efforts. It would have serious consequences for the Middle East and further afield.” How further depends on the range of Iran-Saudi Arabia’s ballistic missiles. Iran’s Shahab-3 has a range of 1,250 miles and some will be launched from Turkey do to an Iranian missile expert arriving there in February, and the House of Saud’s CSS-2 purchased from Beijing in the mid-1980s (Reuters Feb. 15, 2004) have a range of 2,500 miles.

The Egyptian President no doubt realizes his government would be one of the consequences since Mubarak has always hated Islamic radicalism and governments like Teheran at the center of it ever since Mubarak’s predecessor Anwar al-Sadat was assassinated in October 1981 by radicals just two years after the Khomeini revolution in Iran. Teheran named a street after the assassin an army Lieutenant. Egypt’s military reflects the division within the society. As more Islamic extremism is inspired when Teheran-Damascus enter the war against Israel, quite possibly next month, Mubarak will declare war against Iran with the Egyptian units still loyal to him, but Cairo is surrounded by Islamic governments that support the Jihad, Tripoli-Khartoum and the West will be pre-occupied with its own dangerous position in the region under attack and fighting in Southeast Europe and therefore unable to assist him.

Daily Roundup from Willard Payne (Night Watch Information Service)
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