Of course, White House, State Department and US military spokespeople
ventured into endless predictable talk about democracy, freedom,
liberty and security in order to woo an increasingly agitated American
public. But US action on the ground spoke of another reality: an
imperial quest, with monopoly on violence and disregard of
international law, the national sovereignty of Iraq and near total
disregard of the human rights of its citizens.
Now the Bush administration is ready to crown its Iraq travesty with a
long-term strategy that would turn Iraq's occupation into a lasting
one. The US is 'negotiating' a treaty with the Iraqi government, one
that would replace the UN mandate and legalise the US occupation of
Iraq permanently.
Basically, time is running out for Bush. If no treaty is reached by the
end of the year, his administration could find itself pleading to the
Security Council for another extension of the mandate. This would be an
embarrassing and dangerous scenario for US diplomacy because it would
allow Russia and China to re-emerge as important players wielding
fearsome veto powers.
By signing a long-term treaty, the Bush administration would pre-empt any action by a future Democratic president of Iraq.
When the UN Security Council voted unanimously to extend the US-led
multinational forces in Iraq in November 2005, the US celebrated the
decision as a sign of international commitment to Iraq's political
transition.
John Bolton, US ambassador to the UN at the time, had repeatedly
lambasted the UN and now saw "the unanimous adoption of this resolution
(as) a vivid demonstration of broad international support for a
federal, democratic, pluralistic and unified Iraq." After this the
Pentagon said the "US planned to cut the numbers of troops next year."
Since then, the opposite has actualised. Iraqi troops failed their
first serious test — in failing to crack down on Al Mahdi army — and US
forces grew in numbers.
In order for the US to sign a long-term strategic treaty with the Iraqi
government, it needs a level of stability. The US military should be
able to macro-manage Iraq as troops relegate to their permanent bases —
50 according to a report by Patrick Cockburn in the UK Independent —
while their Iraqi allies give an illusion of sovereignty in dealing
with day-to-day life in Iraq. The US' dilemma is that this coveted
stability is nowhere in sight.
Since late 2007, officials in the US, the UN and Iraq have asserted
that they have no intention of seeking another UN mandate. The US-Iraq
treaty is thus the only option that will legalise the American
occupation. The idea of the treaty is to give the impression that the
relationship between the two is not that of the occupied and the
occupier, but two sovereigns with mutual interests and equitable
rights.
Iraqis are, unsurprisingly, furious about US expectations from the
treaty. According to Cockburn, "Iraqi officials fear that the accord,
under which US troops would occupy permanent bases, conduct military
operations, arrest Iraqis and enjoy immunity from Iraqi law, will
destabilise Iraq's position in the Middle East and lay the basis for
unending conflict in their country."
Iraqi cabinet spokesman Ali Al Dabbagh was quoted by Iraqi TV as saying
that government will not compromise on Iraq's sovereignty and is
committed to "safeguarding Iraq's full sovereignty in line with
international resolutions."
Although it is difficult to believe in Prime Minister Al Maliki's
commitment to 'full sovereignty,' one cannot underestimate the pressure
he faces at the parliament — fractious alliances, nationalists from
various backgrounds, unstable Shia front, sceptical Sunni leadership.
Aljazeera reported on how two of these legislators testified to the
House Foreign Affairs subcommittee that, "US troops should leave Iraq
before talks on a long term security pact could be completed."
Khalaf Al-Ulayyan, the founder of the National Dialogue Council wants
talks delayed "until there is a new administration in the United
States," the exact scenario that the Bush administration is hoping to
avoid. The US wants an agreement by July, one that would be hard to
reverse even by a Democratic president.
To avoid embarrassment, "it's entirely possible that the Bush
Administration, sometime this summer, will force the hapless regime of
Prime Minister Maliki to submit to a US diktat on a US-Iraq accord."
(Robert Dreyfuss, The Nation). "If Maliki signs the accord, and ignores
the opposition from parliament, he would instantly lose whatever
remaining credibility he has left as an Iraqi leader," which would lead
to more violence in Iraq at the eve of US elections. "Not a pleasant
scenario," asserts Dreyfuss.
One can argue that no pleasant scenarios are possible in Iraq at any
time under a US military presence. Iraq's past treasures were
squandered immediately after its 'liberation' by US forces, and its
present is daunted by bloodshed and uncertainty. The Bush
administration now wants to ensure that the country's future is also
compromised by violence, humiliation and war.
Ramzy Baroud (
www.ramzybaroud.net) is an author and editor of
PalestineChronicle.com.
His work has been published in many newspapers and journals worldwide.
His latest book is The Second Palestinian Intifada: A Chronicle of a
People's Struggle (Pluto Press, London)