Wake up! Forget the roses. They're not going to be around long to smell if we don't do something about the changing climate.
Melting ice sheets leading to a rapid rise in sea levels plus the extinction of large numbers of species should be enough to concern us all. If you live in a country surrounded by the sea, and you live close to the coast, you should be doubly concerned.
Many have seen the film The Butterfly Effect, where a small change in the early events of one’s life can result in huge differences in later life. The idea comes from chaos theory, where small changes in the initial conditions of a system may produce large variations in the long term behaviour of the system.
The title reflects the metaphor of the butterfly fluttering its wings in one part of the world causing a tornado to appear (or prevent a tornado from appearing) in another.
Sections of a UN report issued last spring focused on three
issues: the first on science, the second on how the world could adapt
to warming and the third about how countries could “mitigate,” or
reduce the greenhouse gases produced.
According to the New
York Times, "This fourth and final assessment — the so-called synthesis
report — seeks to combine lessons from all three. Its conclusions are
culled from data contained in the thousands of pages that were
essentially technical supplements to the panel’s previous publications."
When
the latest report was issued on November 18th, Secretary General Ban
Ki-moon warned that earth is on the brink of catastrophe. He warned the
United States and China, the world’s leading greenhouse gas emitters,
to” play a more constructive role” in meeting “the defining challenge
of our age.”
NIWA scientist Dr Jim Salinger says glaciers are
shrinking and the volume of ice in the Southern Alps has dropped almost
11% in the last 20 years, which he says is a clear sign temperatures in
the area have been rising.
Some scientists have suggested that
the report understates the problem since it's based on a five-year
study and fails to take recent events, like greater energy use in China
or latest data on climate change, fully into account.
Even the
ripple effect of small degrees of temperature change can be disastrous
in terms of species extinction and loss of biodiversity. Melting ice
sheets could lead to rapid rises in sea levels, and this could occur
from warming of only one to three degrees.
If ice-sheets in
Greenland and Western Antarctica melt entirely, sea levels would rise
40 feet according to scientists. What happens to coastal areas if sea
levels rise only five or ten feet from melting glaciers?
The
real sufferers are and will continue to be the developing nations and
countries surrounded by water. In December ministers will meet in Bali
to learn about the options available and to understand the consequences
of inaction.
Unfortunately countries like the United States
and China have been trying to play down the consequences of global
warming, primarily because they don't want to bear the expense of
controlling the industries responsible.
As Secretary General Ban
said, "Today the world's scientists have spoken clearly and with one
voice, In Bali I expect the world's policymakers to do the same." The
countries meeting in Bali need to insist on measures to control global
warming, preserve the environment and stay above water.
Global climate change is normal, in fact the scientists were telling us for the last 30 years that we are overdue an ice age. This tiny little blip in global temperatures (and it is tiny) may be nothing abnormal at all, there is simply so little data other than speculative.
That is the biggest flaw in the climate change argument, there is simply not enough hard evidence to blame it on human behaviour.
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December 03, 2007
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