Petras sees an inevitable split between wealth-first financial
ruling class objectives and militarists in the Bush administration,
their counterparts in Israel, and the Lobby representing Israeli
interests with a stranglehold on most of Congress. The battle lines
shape up over Israeli Middle East dominance at the cost of imperial
overreach, an escalating trade deficit, a ballooning national debt,
decreasing capital inflows to offset it, and a declining dollar as
other nations move to euros, yen and pounds sterling. Something has to
give, says Petras, as both sides support opposing agendas that only a
crisis-provoking widespread backlash may resolve.
For now,
however, things couldn't be better for the ruling class (despite their
disrupted plans in Iraq and Afghanistan) with the top 2% of adults in
the world owning half its wealth, the top 10% with 85% of it, and the
bottom half with just 1%. The result is an unprecedented wealth
disparity with corporate CEO's on average earning over 400 times the
median income of wage and salaried workers, and for top-earning
speculators and hedge fund managers the ratio is 1000 to one with some
having incomes topping a billion dollars a year. In addition, corporate
wealth was at a record 43% of 2005 national income accruing to profits,
rents and other non-wage/salary sources compared to a declining
percentage of it to individuals, except for those at the top gaining
hugely.
Petras states:
"The growth of monstrous and rigid
class inequalities reflects the narrow social base of an economy
dominated by finance capital"
... with the US redistributing far less to
its people than other developed nations like those in Western Europe.
Democrats are as culpable as Republicans with both parties tied to big
monied interests through campaign funding and the power of lobbies. It
makes everyone in the political power structure unwilling to change
things so they don't. The result is working Americans suffer hugely
while those at the top never had it so good. It signals warnings of a
potential worker backlash ahead that for now have gone unheeded.
Elitists ignore it at their peril, so far without negative consequences
to their dominance, but watch out.
Capitalism or US Workers in Crisis?
Petras
notes how for years many on the left and some in the financial
community have been predicting the "coming collapse, decline or demise
of capitalism" as though (for some) wishing would make it so. They're
still predicting, but it hasn't happened, and Petras explains why not.
It's because business and government partnered (especially since the
1980s) to let workers take the pain so business could gain and prosper.
It's done it hugely and continues to despite the resurgent summer
doomsday predictions still ongoing.
In a letter to clients,
noted investment manager Jeremy Grantham explained why business is
resilient by comparing the global financial system (with its US anchor)
to a giant suspension bridge. Thousands of bolts hold it together, so
when some of them fail, even a lot of them, it's not enough to bring it
down. Short of "broad-based....financial metal fatigue," even more
bolts may fail, but he's betting the bridge will hold, supported by
amazing "animal spirits," at least for now.
Grantham is likely
right in the near term, while Petras takes a longer view, and his
arguments are compelling. He sees labor today in crisis with living
standards declining the result of reduced or eliminated business
benefits, government services and stagnating wages. He also lists
popular myths predicting doom ahead - the growing budget and current
account deficits; ballooning national debt; excess speculation;
weakening dollar; high energy costs; outsourcing of jobs at all levels,
and more. Petras maintains these problems aren't as serious as claimed
because:
— budget deficits declined in 2006 as tax revenues
rose from high-end earners' greater income at the expense of labor
getting less;
— foreign investment in the US remains high;
— the dollar remains the world's reserve currency; over time, it
weakens and strengthens based on interest rates, political events, and
the overall level of economic activity; nonetheless, the dollar
weakened considerably after the Fed cut interest rates and depreciated
to an all-time low against a basket of six of its major peer currencies
that include the euro, pound and yen; in addition, the New York Board
of Trade index hit its weakest level since it came out in 1973, and the
same is true for the Fed's trade-weighted dollar index since its
creation in 1971; what's ahead? Likely more of the same until everyone
believes the dollar is dead; then, watch out;
— a decade-long trade deficit hasn't caused apocalypse;
— strong economic underpinnings (Grantham's giant suspension bridge)
offset excess speculation, and workers, not capital, take the pain;
— high energy profits overseas are recycled back into dollar-based
investments and have been for years although countries like Iran,
Venezuela and others are moving away from the dollar at least for now;
— the potential of new technologies is underestimated;
— corporate profits have had their longest ever run of double-digit
gains; the number of millionaires and billionaires is growing; the rich
are becoming super-rich; and the beneficiaries are largely in North
America, Western Europe (plus Russia) and Asia.
Petras concludes
that as long as worker exploitation continues, the fundamental law of
"casino capitalism" applies - the house never loses, or in this case
the neighborhood (of developed nations) with some in it doing better
than others and the US their anchor. The weakness of US labor and its
history of overpaid, underperforming, corrupted leaders explains why
with only 7.4% today in the private sector organized compared to 34.7%
in the 1950s. Unless new social and political movements surface under
activist leaders, Marx's "dirty secret" and Adam Smith's "vile maxim of
the masters of mankind" will continue proving "the wealth of all
nations" depends on the rich taking it "all for ourselves and (leaving)
nothing for" the working class.
Market Liberalization and Forced Emigration
Migration
and so-called illegal immigrants make headlines but never the reasons
why that are two-fold: fleeing political strife (as in Iraq) or for
economic reasons that the imperial globalized market system causes
horrifically. The latter forces millions of Mexicans el norte because
of NAFTA. Its disastrous effects on their lives leaves them no choice -
emigrate or perish.
Petras explains when protective trade
barriers come down, millions of small farmers and entrepreneurs are no
match for the power of subsidized agribusiness, big manufacturers and
corporate service providers. They're displaced when their livelihoods
are lost, and that creates a huge surplus army of labor on the move and
an opportunity for business to exploit for profit. It affects all skill
types and levels (farm workers to computer specialists to doctors),
undermines unions, and allows management to replace higher-paid US
workers with low-wage immigrants at their mercy and getting little. Pay
is kept low, benefits few or none, working conditions unsafe, unions
weakened, and dare complain and be sent home.
Petras notes
that as imperial power grows, "the massive movement of dislocated
workers toward the imperial center multiplies," and there's no end in
sight nor will there be as long as highly exploitative sectors like
agriculture, construction and low-end manufacturing and services thrive
on it. Workers lose and so do "sender" countries. They bore the costs
of raising, educating, training and providing services for millions
with "receiver" nations getting the benefits. It amounts to
multi-billions in the form of critically needed skilled areas lost that
include professionals like doctors, nurses, teachers and others. This
won't ever change unless worker movements unite against it.
Empire-Building and Corruption
Petras
notes how empire-building "is the driving force of the US economy
(especially post-9/11)," corruption a key corporate predator tool to
re-divide the world, and nations with the greatest firepower get the
choicest slices. Business profit growth depends on exploiting overseas
opportunities for their resources, markets and cheap reserve armies of
labor with four so-called "BRIC" countries especially targeted:
— China for its cheap labor and opportunities in finance, insurance and real estate;
— India for its low cost information technology services;
— Brazil for its high interest rates that hit 19.5%, were then greatly cut, but are still around 11%; and
— Russia for its high profit oil and gas reserves, transport and luxury
goods markets with booming opportunities in real estate once political
leaders are bought off in a country rife with corruption as is China.
Petras
notes that today over half the top 500 transnational corporations earn
most of their profits overseas, and for many it's 75% of it. This trend
will continue, he says, as these companies shift most of their
operations abroad for greater cost savings. In addition, "political
corruption, not economic efficiency, is the driving force of economic
empire-building (with) the scale and scope of Western pillage of the
East....unprecedented in recent world history." It's from
business-friendly legislation on low wages, pensions, job tenure, land
use, worker safety and health, all designed for maximum profit.
Political leaders are bought off to get state-owned businesses
privatized, markets deregulated, wages kept low, with a huge reserve
army of exploitable labor the payoff for "the US Imperial System."
Hierarchy of Empire and Use of Force
Petras
explains the US imperial system in terms of its "hierarchy of empire"
rankings. Imperial powers top it (the US, EU and Japan) followed by
emerging powers (China, Russia, India), semi-autonomous client regimes
(Brazil, South Korea, South Africa), and collaborator regimes on the
bottom (Egypt, Mexico, Colombia). Then come independent "revolutionary"
(social democratic) states like Venezuela and nationalist ones like
Iran as well as "contested terrain and regimes in transition (Iraq,
Afghanistan, Somalia, Palestine)." Client regimes provide "a crucial
link in sustaining imperial powers" by allowing them to project and
extend their state and market reach.
One "anomaly" in the
hierarchy is Israel. It's a colonialist and nuclear power and world's
fourth largest military power and arms exporter that's breathtaking for
a country of 7.1 million and 5.4 million Jews. It's influence over US
Middle East policy, however, inordinately outweighs its size with Iraq
exhibit A and Iran moving up fast. More on this below.
Petras
notes the constant flux within the imperial system the result of wars,
national struggles and economic crises. They bring down regimes and
elevate others with examples like Russia, the Eastern European states,
South Africa and Venezuela. It shows "no singular omnipotent imperial
state....unilaterally defines the international or....imperial system
(that in the case of the US) proved incapable of....defeating
popular....resistance in Iraq and Afghanistan."
Even in
Somalia, a US proxy war is in trouble, but it's too early to predict
the outcome. The easy 2006 overthrow of the popular Islamic Courts
Union (ICU) put an unsupported warlord regime in charge (that plundered
the country from 1991 - 2005) with predictable results - strong
resistance against the US puppet regime and its deeply corrupted
Transitional Federal Government (TFG) "president," Abdullahi Yusuf.
Washington backed a hated regime and an equally detested Ethiopian
government that's been "prop(ping) up its Somali puppet" with a lift
from US-supported force. Earlier in 1993-94, the Clinton
administration's intervention failed. It spawned mass opposition, took
thousands of Somali lives in retaliation, and ended in defeat and a
humiliating US pullout. That may repeat despite Washington's
establishing an African Command (AFRICOM) to solidify its hold on the
continent and its strategically important Horn. So far, it's very much
up for grabs with US presence in the region unwelcome and greatly
destabilizing. The "empire" never learns, so it's on to the next target
that looks like Iran. More on that below.
Imperialism and Genocide
Petras
explains how Korea, Vietnam and other wars hid their true cost in
lives, devastation and human wreckage. It's the way of all empires
sweeping over populations like crabgrass. It becomes "an accelerating
predisposition to genocides to accomplish political aims," and in an
age of "shock and awe," it can come with "awesome" speed. An example is
from the latest O.R.B. British polling data reporting 1.2 million Iraqi
deaths since March, 2003 alone plus another 1.5 million up to that
date. The true toll may be even higher with huge uncounted numbers of
daily violent and non-violent deaths that one estimate by Gideon Polya
places at 3.9 million from 1990 to the present. No one knows for sure,
and his estimate may be as good as any other. All of them are horrific.
Petras
notes the "quantity" of killings elsewhere - six million Jews and 20
million Soviet civilians in WW II as well as 10 million Chinese
civilians in Asia. He explains genocide as policy from a "state
(promoted) racialist-exterminationist ideology (as well as from) an
historical antipathy of one culture to another." This allows ruling
classes to legitimize their ideology and achieve "uncontested
dominance" and ability to economically exploit domestic and overseas
markets. An omelet requires breaking eggs. Mass human slaughter is the
frequent fallout from consolidating empires with living beings having
no more worth than egg shells.
Genocides also result from
revolutionary challenges to unpopular puppet rulers with Korea,
Indo-China and Iraq Exhibits A, B, and C. Up to eight million perished
in Asia, and three (or maybe four) million could be reached in Iraq in
2008 at the present pace. There's no end to it in sight with billions
funding it, and no reporting on the carnage in the mainstream.
Petras
reviews examples of imperialism becoming genocide with the Reagan
administration alone responsible for its share. It committed multiple
proxy genocides in Africa, Afghanistan and Central America, but you'd
never know it from reports at the time about a president being prepped
for Mount Rushmore with a spot for George Bush beside him until Iraq
got him in trouble.
Another unreported genocide is Israel's six
decade-long crusade against the Palestinians with predicable results.
It caused many thousands of deaths, mass population displacement, and
excessive use of detentions and torture to deny a people freedom and
justice in their own land. The policy continues because Israel has a
powerful ally in Washington and an even more influential Lobby working
on its behalf. More on that below.
Petras notes genocides are
"repeated, common practices," impunity for committing them the norm,
and no effective international order is in place to stop them. Victors
justice prevails so victims face kangaroo tribunals like the ICTY for
Yugoslavia and the equally corrupted one for Iraq. Genocides will only
end when imperial powers are defeated and their leaders held to account
for their crimes, but that goal is nowhere in sight.
The Global Billionaire Ruling Class
The
number of world billionaires reached 946 in March, 2007, they have an
estimated combined wealth of $3.5 trillion, and over half of them are
in three countries - 415 in the US, 55 in Germany and 53 in Russia
where never did so many people lose more so a handful of others could
gain so hugely in so short a time. India ranks high as well with 36
billionaires with China next in the region at 20. The number of
millionaires exploded as well with close to 10 million in 2007, and in
2006 their numbers grew by an estimated 8.3%.
Balzac was right
saying behind every great fortune is a crime (and most often a small
fortune as seed money) but likely nowhere more rapaciously than in
Russia. Petras notes "Without exception, the transfers of (state)
property were achieved through gangster tactics - assassinations,
massive theft, and seizure of state resources, illicit stock
manipulation and buyouts." They strip mined over a trillion dollars of
Russia's wealth into private predatory hands who, in turn, stuffed them
in offshore accounts. It happens everywhere with the US exhibit A. The
Rockefellers, Morgans, Fords and Carnegie's didn't amass wealth by
being neighborly or nice. They got it the old-fashioned way - by
strong-arming and stealing.
In developing countries, it came
faster under Washington Consensus rules favoring capital over people
with billionaires coming out on top. Latin America has 38 of them,
mostly in Brazil (with 30) and Mexico (with industrialist Carlos Slim
Helu now the world's third richest man). These "two countries....
privatized the most lucrative, efficient and largest public
monopolies," and benefitted hugely from regressive taxes, tax
exemptions, deregulation, big subsidies, and the ability to hike prices
and make vital services unaffordable to millions who can't pay for them.
"How
to become a billionaire," Petras asked. No need for an MBA or market
savvy when the "interface of politics (aka friends in high places) and
economics" works much better. The road to super-riches came from
privatized state assets that began with bloody military coups in Latin
America. In countries like Chile, Colombia and Argentina, results were
always the same - great riches at the top, stagnant economies, vast
poverty, high unemployment, two-thirds of the region's population with
"inadequate living standards," and the long shadow of US involvement
backing military dictators, business elites, and neoliberal politicians
to assure lucrative ties to corporate interests in America. More on
this below.
Part II - The Power of Israel and Its Lobby in the US
Petras
covered how the Israeli Lobby defeated the Jim Baker Iraq Study Group's
(ISG) proposal released December 6, 2006. Its alternative US Middle
East agenda lost out to the Israeli Lobby's influence on Congress, a
massive supportive propaganda campaign in the major media, and Israeli
Prime Minister Ehud Olmert being as able to "have the US president
under our control" as Ariel Sharon once boasted.
For a time it
looked like the ISG plan would prevail with top Bush advisors
recommending dialogue with Iran; high-ranking military, active and
retired, wanting a phased withdrawal for a failed effort; and the Army,
Navy and Marine Corps weekly publications wanting Defense Secretary
Rumsfeld sacked shortly before he resigned. Even Big Oil interests
backed Baker because stable conditions favor business more than
conflict (at least to pump oil), and that won't happen without a change
of course now off the table.
Iran wants rapprochement as well
but not on the usual US terms - making demands and offering nothing in
return. Iran's objectives are simple and reasonable - normalized
relations and an end to Washington's confrontational stance and
military threats. They're off the table because the "Israel-First power
structure (Lobby-Congress-Mass Media-Democratic Party Donors)" reject
them. Syria is just as compliant, but its overtures are also rebuffed
for the same reason.
Petras explained that AIPAC wants war with
Iran as its top priority objective. In addition, the publications,
conferences and press releases of the Conference of Presidents of the
Major American Jewish Organizations (CPMAJO) asked their members "to go
all-out to fund and back candidates (mostly Democrats) who supported
Israel's military solution to Iran's nuclear enrichment program" even
though IAEA agrees it's in total compliance with Nuclear
Non-Proliferation Treaty rules while Israel violates them with impunity.
In
the end, Prime Minister Olmert co-opted George Bush, got him to reject
the ISG proposal and ally with Israel's aim to solidify its Middle East
dominance by removing a non-existent Iranian threat with Syria also
targeted. In many respects, this flies in the face of logic as many
influential US figures know. Petras believes Iran is a key interlocutor
for a Middle East settlement that might let Washington retain its
strategic Arab allies. Tehran is willing to cooperate but not when its
government is lumped with Al-Queda, the Taliban and Iraqi resistance
and is being threatened with war. That's the current condition with
renewed Bush administration efforts to prep the public to accept more
of it if it comes.
Hamas also has been conciliatory. Its
leaders made two peace proposals as a show of good faith, is willing to
recognize Israel if Palestinians get justice, pledged a cease-fire in
the face of Israeli attacks, and was rebuffed with rejection and an
Israeli blockade of Gaza along with frequent hostile incursions.
Conflicts rage in Iraq and occupied Palestine, more war threatens in
Iran, and the road to peace in the region runs through Jerusalem
providing Washington concurs. But it's not possible, in Petras'
judgment, unless foreign military bases are closed, there's public
control or nationalization of the region's resources, and Israel ends
its colonial occupation of Palestine. So far, those objectives are
nowhere in sight.
The Lobby and Media on Lebanon
In
Petras' powerful 2006 book, "The Power of Israel in the United States,"
he documented how this power derives from a vast pro-Israel Lobby in
the country supporting all aspects of its agenda. It's position is firm
- "Israel is always right, Arabs and Muslims are a threat to peace,"
and the US should unconditionally support Israel across the board. In
Petras' view, that's the main reason why the Bush administration
attacked Iraq and may now target Iran and Syria. Israel perceives these
countries as threats, Washington seems willing to remove them, and a
chorus of media-driven propaganda approves.
They always
support Israel and jumped right in last summer backing "Operation
Change of Direction" against Hezbollah and "Operation Summer Rain"
against Hamas that caused many hundreds of deaths and mass destruction.
It was all papered over in the major media and characterized as
Israel's "defensive, existential war for survival against Islamic
terrorists." It was pure baloney. In fact, and unreported, Israel
launched dual long-planned aggressive wars with Hezbollah's capture of
three IDF soldiers in Lebanon the pretext and Hamas taking one Israeli
corporal the justification in occupied Palestine. Never mentioned are
the many thousands of Palestinians illegally abducted, imprisoned and
tortured, and that unprovoked aggressive wars and their fallout are war
crimes and crimes against humanity.
Also unmentioned is that if
Hezbollah and Hamas hadn't provided the pretexts, Israel (as it's often
done) would have manufactured them to launch its summer aggression.
With full US support and backing from its Lobby and dominant media,
these type actions continue at the expense of their victims with US
taxpayers duped into funding them generously.
US Empire and the Middle East
Petras
notes key factors help explain US Middle East policy that in his
judgment are "challenged from within and without, are subject to sharp
contradictions," and are likely to fail.
First, is the influence
of the Israeli Lobby he documented powerfully as have Mearsheimer and
Walt in their work. It's likely the most potent lobby in Washington and
can practically mobilize the entire Congress, every administration and
the dominant media to back pro-Israeli policies even when they run
counter to US corporate interests that in Middle East means those of
Big Oil primarily.
The Lobby wanted war with Iraq and got it.
Now its top priority is stiff sanctions and war on Iran, and if the
orchestrated media hate frenzy targeting President Mahmoud
Ahmadinejad's Columbia University address September 24 is an
indication, it may get it. As Petras notes, the Lobby's fanatical
support for Israel is so extreme and uncompromising, it's even willing
to risk world war and economic collapse to get its way.
Another
key factor is the US ability to enlist and co-op client states and
proxy forces to serve our interests - the Kurds in Northern Iraq; the
Abbas-Dahlan Fatah militants in Palestine; the Sinoria-Hariri-Jumblat
pro-US/Israel, anti-Syria/Hezbollah/Hamas alliance in Lebanon; Mubarak
in Egypt; King Hussein in Jordan; pro-US regimes in Turkey; the Saudis
and others.
Petras then explains how the Israeli Lobby's
influence runs counter to the US "Arab agenda." It shows up in
Washington's failure to construct a NATO-style power-sharing alliance
in the region, except for Turkey and Israel, and the former may not
prove solid. The Iraq policy has been disastrous, each tactic tried
failed, resistance is unabated, the Arab street overwhelmingly rejects
occupation, and Arab leaders offer tepid support.
Petras calls
Washington's permanent war strategy (next targeting Iran and Syria) "an
irrational gamble comparable to Hitler's attack on Russia" that doomed
him. Today in the Middle East, attacking these two countries may only
compound the Iraq failure with "greater defeats, greater domestic
rebellion" and still more wars without end promising gloomy prospects
ahead.
Part III - The Possibility of Resistance
Petras
discusses China and the "general consensus (it's) emerging as the next
economic superpower" to challenge US dominance. Petras expresses doubts
that can only be summarized briefly. He notes Chinese capitalism not
only depends on growth and the ability to generate jobs, but also on
"the social relations of production, circulation and reproduction."
They come at a high price - ferocious labor exploitation, rampant
corruption and nepotism, mass small farmer displacement, firing
millions of workers from state-owned and bankrupt enterprises, ending
social services, and higher living costs increasing class warfare in
the streets against billionaire kleptocrats and foreign investors
profiting hugely at the expense of most Chinese.
Petras then
distinguishes between "made in China" and Chinese-owned and whether the
former enhances China's growth or foreign investor profits instead. He
sees China taking on "features of both a neo-colony and an emerging
imperial power," but mostly the former. He notes the standard of living
for most Chinese "declined precipitously;" air, water and ground
pollution greatly increased; the quality of life for most Chinese
suffers; class inequalities are vast; and gains from a consumerist
society for a minority of the population are offset by dirty air, loss
of leisure, job security, near rent-free housing, state-provided health
care and education, deteriorated working conditions and more. Paradise
it's not, at least for workers, and conditions aren't improving.
Petras
then discusses China's transition from state to "liberal" capitalism.
As it deepened, trade barriers were dismantled; protective labor laws
abolished; price controls lifted; the countryside ravaged; a massive
new army of unemployed workers created; and an export-driven market
strategy followed. The result today is a new class of billionaires and
about 2900 former party "princelings" who control around $260 billion
of wealth. In addition, property, real estate and construction boomed,
an export strategy concentrated development on coastal regions, and
domestic consumption is relatively constrained.
In contrast,
"millions of construction workers, miners, domestic servants and
assembly-line workers (labor) under the most abominable conditions" -
long hours, low pay, awful sanitary conditions and little regard for
safety in an unregulated environment structured for maximum profit.
China today is a "magnet for capitalists and investors worldwide," a
free market paradise that's hell on workers paying hugely for the
country's marketplace "success."
Petras envisions China's
capitalism deepening and mainly benefitting foreign investors. He sees
their "initial beachheads as minority shareholders" extending into
production, distribution, transport, real estate, telecommunications,
consumer goods and services, entertainment, finance and more and
eventually gaining more control. As a result, he believes China's next
great leap forward will be from liberalism to neoliberalism, the
country will lose its national identity, it will become a "territorial
outpost" for foreign-owned transnationals, and the country's bid for
world power status will be subverted.
Petras sees 21st century
China emerging as a "gigantic proxy for imperial powers," but China
won't be one of them. Its "Great Leap Backwards" will be consummated
when the nation's "share of profits shifts from the national
bourgeoisie" to foreign investors in a process now accelerating.
But
it won't come easily as a new generation of China's leaders may stop or
curtail it. In addition, growing mass resistance has now emerged for
obvious reasons cited above. Already, close to 100,000 mass
demonstrations have occurred involving millions of Chinese protesting a
workers' hell. Social crisis is deepening, class struggle has returned,
and the government has taken note. It's beginning to address concerns
but giving back pathetically little considering China's massive
population. Petras calls these remediating actions "too little and too
late." Ahead he sees decentralized protests becoming organized urban
worker movements that when joined with displaced farmers may set off a
new rebellious period. This may then blossom into "a new revolutionary
struggle" that will determine China's future and its climate for
investors.
The US and Latin America
Petras has studied
Latin America for decades and knows the region as well as anyone. Here
he dispels notions of a revitalized regional populism with US dominance
waning. His case is compelling as he argues Washington's influence has
increased in recent years (though not to the level of the 1990s)
despite the success of Hugo Chavez and his ability to thwart US efforts
to unseat him.
The Bush administration lost out on FTAA but has had other successes:
— bilateral trade agreements with numerous Latin American states from the Caribbean to Chile;
— an expanded number of military bases despite the possible loss of one in Ecuador ahead;
— US business interests in the region flourishing, including in Venezuela where they're booming; and
— neoliberal free market policies intact despite campaign rhetoric promising change.
Aside
from Venezuela and maybe Ecuador (where it's too soon to tell), the
left's appraisal of progressive change is nowhere in sight, so what are
they seeing that's not there.
Petras assesses the current state
of things in the region after reviewing its recent history readers can
get from the book. He notes signs of Washington's declining influence
that's had no adverse affect on corporate interests except in Venezuela
where taxes are now fair compared to earlier when they were too low. He
also explains so-called center-left regimes in Brazil, Argentina,
Bolivia, Uruguay and elsewhere tamed mass social movement demands while
embracing 1990s neoliberalism. In Brazil, if fact, President Lula da
Silva actually deepened and extended the privatization and restrictive
budget policies of the preceding Cardoso regime, and despite his
Workers Party background, demobilized mass movements and trade unions
instead of supporting them as people expected. Many now see him for
what he is - a traitor, but sadly, he's got company, too much of it.
Of
great significance is the way Petras explains four competing regional
power blocs representing varying degrees of accommodation or opposition
to US policies and interests.
1. The Radical Left
It includes:
— the FARC guerillas in Colombia (active since 1964); some trade union
sectors; and peasant and barrio movements in Venezuela;
— the labor confederation CONLUTAS and sectors of Brazil's Rural Landless Movement (MST);
— sectors of the Bolivian Labor Confederation (COB) and the Andean peasant movements and barrio organizations in El Alto;
— peasant movement sectors (CONAIE) in Ecuador;
— teachers and peasant-indigenous movements in Oaxaca, Guerrero and Chiapas, Mexico;
— nationalist-peasant-left sectors in Peru;
— trade unionist and unemployed sectors in Argentina; and
— other Central and South American social movements and some Marxist groups in several countries.
2. The Pragmatic Left
— Hugo Chavez in Venezuela who combines grassroots participatory
democracy and redistributive social policies with support for business
interests;
— Evo Morales in Bolivia;
— Fidel Castro in Cuba;
— various large electoral parties and major peasant and trade unions in
the region; leftist parties including the PRD in Mexico, FMLN in El
Salvador, CUT in Colombia, Chilean Communist Party, Peru's nationalist
parliamentary party, sectors of Brazil's MST, Bolivia's MAS governing
party, CTA in Argentina, and PIT-CNT in Uruguay.
3. The Pragmatic Neoliberals (the most numerous political block)
— Lula in Brazil;
— Kirchner in Argentina;
— the major trade union confederations in Brazil and Argentina;
— business and financial elite sectors providing subsistence unemployment doles and food aid; and
— similar groups in Ecuador, Nicaragua (the Sandinistas and their split-offs), Paraguay and other countries.
4. The Doctrinaire Neoliberal Regimes
— Calderon in Mexico;
— Uribe in Colombia;
— Bachelet in Chile (in spite of her being imprisoned and tortured under Pinochet);
— the Central American countries: El Salvador, Honduras, Costa Rica and Guatemala;
— Garcia in Peru;
— Paraguay with the region's largest military base;
— Uruguay's ex-leftist regime now rightist;
— US-occupied Haiti through proxy thuggish paramilitary UN peacekeepers; and
— the Dominican Republic.
The
notion that populism swept Latin America in the new century is pure
fantasy. In fact, there's a "quadrangle of competing and conflicting"
regional forces with Washington having less market leverage than in the
1990s "Golden Age of Pillage" but still enough to be dominant and able
to keep business flourishing.
Petras continues his analysis with
detailed examples of key center-left regimes in Brazil under Lula,
Argentina under Kirchner, Uruguay under Vazquez, Bolivia under Morales
plus some comments on Peru and Ecuador under leaders preceding their
current ones. Each case substantiates the fantasy that these regimes
represented "new winds from the Left" sweeping the region. Hot air
maybe, but little, if anything, in the way of progressive change
despite the beliefs of many intellectuals on the left.
However,
that's not to say leftist forces aren't strong enough to bubble up and
bring change. Insurrectionary forces brought Evo Morales to power in
Bolivia and can take him down if he fails them as he's now doing. The
same is true in other countries with Hugo Chavez their model. He
challenged US imperialism, brought real social change, has mass public
support and thus far withstood US efforts to oust him. In Cuba, Fidel
Castro thwarted every Washington effort against him since 1959 and is
still in charge, larger than life, although frail and weak following
his protracted illness from which he's still recovering. Petras sees a
new generation of young committed leaders emerging in the region. "They
are the 'Left Winds' of Latin America," and it's in them that hope lies.
Foreign Investment (FI) in Latin America
Petras demystifies FI's impact, explains the risks in attracting it, and exposes six myths about its benefits.
Myth 1.
It's
untrue FI creates new enterprises, market opportunities and more. Most,
in fact, aims to buy privatized and other enterprises while crowding
out local capital and public initiative.
Myth 2.
FI
doesn't increase export competitiveness. It buys mineral resources for
export with little done to create jobs or stimulate the local economy.
Myth 3.
It's false to think FI provides tax revenue and hard currency. An FI export model creates more indebtedness and a net loss.
Myth 4.
It's
false believing debt repayments to international lenders is key to a
good financial standing. Much foreign debt is odious and repaying it
harms borrower countries.
Myth 5.
It's false believing FI
provides developing countries needed capital. It's used instead to buy
local companies and control a country's markets.
Myth 6.
It's
false believing FI attracts further investment. Capital freely moves to
wherever it gets the best returns and is anchored nowhere.
Developing
countries benefit most by relying less on FI and more on national
ownership and investment. The former is predatory. The latter accrues
profits to the national treasury and grows the country's economy. FI
demands conditions favoring capital over labor that results in a
widening economic gap and greater inequalities in political and social
power. The 20 year (1980 - 2000) record of Latin American FI is
socially disastrous. Living standards plunged while unemployment and
poverty soared. Hardly reasons to attract it and clear ones to stay
away or restrict it.
Part IV - An Agenda for Militants
Petras
considers FI economic alternatives and ways to buck its strategic
countermeasures. FI generally threatens disinvestment when a country
wants to enhance its own economy and benefit popular living standards.
Hardball tactics cut both ways, and the state can use its own
effectively to counter capital flight threats as well as adopt policies
in advance serving its needs first ahead of those FI wants to have
things its own way.
Petras notes that FI "is incompatible with
any notion of an independent, socially progressive country" even though
at times it can be useful in a regulated environment controlling it. He
explains a country's own financial and economic resources can be used
instead of FI to enhance its internal development and technological
advance by reinvesting profits from export industries; controlling
foreign trade to increase retention of foreign exchange; investing
pension funds productively; imposing a moratorium on debt payments;
recovering stolen public treasury funds and unpaid taxes; maximizing
under-employed labor, and more.
Most countries can avoid FI by
relying on multiple sources of its own capital. They can also employ
alternative effective strategies when outside help is needed by
minimizing its ownership, employing short-term contracts on favorable
terms, imposing stiff penalties on capital flight, and barring it from
returning if it leaves. Petras concludes: "The historical and empirical
evidence demonstrates that the political, economic and social drawbacks
of (FI) far exceed any short-term benefits perceived by its defenders."
The Middle Class and Social Movements in Latin America
Petras
observes that middle class attitudes in the region depend on the
"political-economic context" confronting it. It's attracted to the
right under expanding right-wing regimes and to the left in times of
economic crisis. On the other hand, under a "popular, anti-dictatorial,
anti-imperialist populist government, the middle class supports
democratic reforms" but not radical policies harming it for the benefit
of the working class. Three examples make his case - in Brazil under
Lula when it took over his Workers Party; in Argentina when it
benefitted under Menem and Cardoso and later under Kirchner; and in
Bolivia under Morales who combines "political demagogy" to his base and
neoliberal IMF austerity in his policies attractive to middle class and
business interests.
Petras notes social movements failed by not
developing political leadership or a program for state power and
depended instead on "electoral politicians of the upwardly mobile
professional middle class." The Left's key challenge, he believes, is
to "convert the public sector middle class from anti-neoliberalism to
anti-capitalism and anti-imperialism, and to combine urban welfare
(with) agrarian reform."
Iraq and Afghanistan's Importance in Defeating the Empire
Petras
concludes by noting Washington's imperial wars were stopped in their
tracks in Iraq and Afghanistan by resistance too powerful to contain. A
"shock and awe" blitzkrieg failed when Iraqis wanted a say in running,
rebuilding and transforming their country and rejected its US-installed
puppet regime. The country is a wasteland, the nation creation project
bankrupt, and the prospect for success bad and worsening with
multi-billions expended and nothing gained except huge profits for
administration favored contractors that always benefit whoever wins or
loses.
The same situation holds in Afghanistan. An easy five
week walkover turned into an endless debacle with no end in sight.
Washington planned successive wars for unchallengeable world dominance,
but local resistance in two countries stopped it cold (so far), may
defeat its proxies in Somalia, and resilient opposition in Palestine
and South Lebanon may prove equally formidable as well.
The US
is now over-extended and its "imperial grand strategy" weakened. It's
made preemptive wars against Iran and Syria and trying again to topple
Hugo Chavez less likely, but none of these possibilities are off the
table. Cornered and facing defeat, rhetoric is heated making anything
possible, and the September 20 Lieberman-Kyl "Sense of the Senate" (no
legal force) resolution/amendment to the FY 2008 Defense Authorization
bill ratchets up the possibility of attacking Iran and its regional
"proxies" with potentially catastrophic fallout the risk.
For
now, emboldened resistance and strong anti-war opposition are matched
against an administration desperate to turn things around and willing
to try anything to do it. How this may end is a crapshoot, the stakes
on its outcome too great to risk but may be waged anyway, and the world
trembles as it waits and watches. Stay tuned and hope Petras is right
believing Iraq and Afghanistan thwarted the empire and prevented
further aggression against Iran and beyond, now off the table. Or maybe
not. When wounded and cornered, desperate animals and politicians may
try anything with nothing to lose. Keep a close watch.
Stephen Lendman lives in Chicago and can be reached at lendmanstephen@sbcglobal.net.
Also
visit his blog site at sjlendman.blogspot.com and listen to The Steve
Lendman News and Information Hour on TheMicroEffect.com Mondays (moved
from Saturdays) at noon US central time.