The purpose of this NIE appears to have little to do with Iran . It's about Iraq , and its timing may be related to the current Congressional debate. But it's even more so about the general fear of terrorism. According to this NIE we need to be very afraid, and at the same time we need to understand that what the leader of our "Homeland" is doing is working.

"We judge…" the first paragraph begins, that the terrorists are out to get us.

"We assess…" begins paragraph 2, that we're defeating the terrorists.

According to former CIA analyst Ray McGovern, assertions of "judging" and "assessing" used to be laughed out of reports, and a demand made for actual evidence. Paragraph 2 concludes with this sentence: "These measures have helped disrupt known plots against the United States since 9/11." Bush made a similar assertion in his State of the Union speech this year, specifying four plots, each of which turned out to be fictional: Several others have turned out to be fictional as well. The NIE does not produce a real one for us. Perhaps it's referring to "plots" where you and I would refer to "Democratic electoral campaigns."

The NIE does, however, mention 9/11 repeatedly and attempt to connect it to the occupation of Iraq . The paragraph on Iraq is, as Spencer Ackerman has pointed out, an amazing example of contorted English. There are words there, to be sure, but coherent ideas are hard to squeeze out of it. The paragraph appears to say that the evil global empire of al qaeda is benefiting from its association with people in Iraq who call themselves al qaeda. And, somehow, this is supposed to convict those Iraqis of evilness by association.

But, of course, what terrorist groups are actually benefiting from is the U.S. occupation of Iraq . The question of whether that occupation is helping or hurting a campaign to reduce terrorism is not addressed in any straightforward way in the NIE. But, as Ackerman points out:

"The National Intelligence Council in 2005, for instance, called Iraq the new 'breeding ground' for 'professionalized' terror. An April 2006 NIE, which remains classified, plainly said the war 'has made the overall terrorism problem worse,' as one intelligence official told the New York Times. It's hard to see how this could be controversial: there would be no al-Qaeda in Iraq -- which the National Intelligence Estimate today says 'energize(s) the broader Sunni extremist community' -- had there been no invasion."

But that's not the worst of the new NIE. The worst is the all-too familiar idiocy of this sentence:

"We assess that al-Qa'ida will continue to try to acquire and employ chemical, biological, radiological, or nuclear material in attacks and would not hesitate to use them if it develops what it deems sufficient capability."

Is this news? A terrorist organization that the United States is working so hard to antagonize and strengthen might try to get some type of weapon (we're not sure what type, but one of the existing types), and if they do get it they might use it. All this AND Chertoff's gut for a mere $80 billion?

For free, gratis, for NOTHING, I can offer you this intelligence assessment: The United States Congress will continue to try to find its testicles, a backbone, some nerves, or an ounce of decency, and would not hesitate to impeach Dick Cheney if it develops what it deems sufficient balls.

Isn't July 18th the deadline for compliance with White House subpoenas? Wasn't an article of impeachment passed by the Judiciary Committee against President Nixon for refusal to comply with subpoenas? Just asking.
 

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