by Larry Johnson

The devil is in the details and the details look bad. Despite the sunny optimism of delusional Senators like John McCain and Joe Lieberman, the ground truth in Iraq gritty, grim, and trending toward disaster. Consider these two items:

07/09/07 usatoday: Attacks rise on supply convoys Attacks on supply convoys protected by private security companies in Iraq have more than tripled as the U.S. government depends more on armed civilian guards to secure reconstruction and other missions. There were 869 such attacks from...

WASHINGTON — The Army failed to meet its recruiting goal in June, raising concern that the unpopular Iraq war and strong economy could wreak even more havoc on enlistments. Army officials acknowledged Monday that the service missed its recruiting target for the second month in a row, but would not provide exact numbers. But two defense officials said the Army fell short of its 8,400 goal by about 15 percent — which is more than twice the June shortfall and would mean that roughly 7,000 recruits signed up. . . .

So the trends show increased attacks on convoys, increased casualties among U.S. forces, declining enlistment in the U.S. Army and Senators McCain and Lieberman continue to insist that things are swell in Iraq. Oh yeah, this just in, at least 35 mortars just hit the Green Zone, killing and wounding several Americans.

Lieberman is particularly nutty.

There is a big problem with Lieberman's understanding of the situation--Al Qaeda and Iran are not working in tandem against us. In fact, they are natural enemies. A little more than one year ago the leader of Al Qaeda in Iraq, Abu Musab Al Zarqawi, preached the importance of killing Shia. In fact, he considered this a higher priority than killing "crusaders".

The dirty secret is that U.S. intelligence and military community really do not have a good grasp on who is behind the daily violence. There are more than 100 attacks per day yet the U.S. intelligence community cannot tell policymakers who is responsible for most of the specific attacks. For example, what percentage of daily attacks are carried out by groups acting on behalf of Iran? We don't know. How about Al Qaeda? We don't know. But hell, why let lack of information get in the way of whipping up public furor.

We cannot quell the violence in Iraq with military force because we do not have the manpower in the Army and Marines to deploy in the number that would be required to carry out the mission. To obtain the necessary force size we would need a draft and at least two years to train the units. A draft is not politically viable and we do not have two years to waste waiting.

These are facts, not opinions. Accordingly, our only viable option is to disengage militarily in Iraq. We should cease immediately operations that send U.S. troops into the homes of Iraqi Sunnis and Shias. Kicking in doors and detaining the menfolk is the equivalent of scratching an infected boil--we irritate the wound and worsen the infection.

Keep these things in mind as we listen to various Administration sychophants praise the progress in Iraq.
 

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